UKPDS Outcomes Model
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Version 2.0
11-May-2015
UKPDS Outcome Model v2 (OM2) is a completely new and revised version of the original model. The equations and details are described in full in UKPDS Paper 82 (Diabetologia 2013;56:1925-1933).
Key New Features
- Includes additional risk factors: Albuminuria, Heart rate, WBC, Haemoglobin and eGFR.
- Includes additional clinical events: Diabetic ulcer and CVD death.
- New equations now predict second events for MI, Stroke and Amputation.
- Can supports up to 3 groups of patients in a single run and provide a summary for each group as well as group differences.
- Produces Kaplan-Meier plots, where appropriate, for clinical events.
- Cost / utility values can now be varied by age and by sex.
- Addition of therapy costs by patient group with pre and post complication costs for user selected triggering events.
- Calculation of Monte Carlo Error allows the simulation to be fine tuned.
- The OM2 Controller Application can manage a queue of workbooks to run multiple simulations unattended.
- Parallel processing can take full advantage of up to 10 computer cores to speed up model execution.
- The number of available bootstraps has been increased to provide improved estimates of confidence intervals.
- The option to run any particular subset of the data has been included.
- Ability to use larger datasets with up to 1,048,559 patients in a single simulation has been provided by switching to XLSM data files.
Version 1.3
21-Jan-2011
Bug Fixes
- Corrected smoking status check and amputation output and added cohort outputs in Standalone version.
- Smoking status is now calculated once per loop instead of once per patient.
New Features
- Cumulative Event rate output for events has been replaced with Event rate and Long-term history rate.
- Diabetes related death has been separated into a separate output sheet from other death.
- A new group column has been added to the Inputs sheet after the ID column. This allows outputs of 2 patient groups to be compared.
- The Input Checks have been combined into a single sheet.
- The Excel macros are now digitially signed.
Version 1.2.1
03-Jun-2009
Corrections
Corrected an issue on page 17 of the manual (Example #1) where the example incorrectly stated that the age entered should be 60. The correct value is 59.
New Features
There is now an option to run the Standalone Implementation of the model without user intervention from the command line and other suitable applications.
Version 1.2
20-Jun-2007
Updated UKPDS Outcomes Model software released.
Bug Fixes
- Incorrect handling of updated smoking status risk factor values has been fixed.
In version 1.1 past smokers (value 1) were treated as current smokers (value 2), and current smokers were treated as a doubling of the smoking effect.
- Updated risk factor values are now applied correctly at the end of the year stated, rather than at the start as in version 1.1.
New Features
- There is now an option to use any of 100 random number sequences. This allows different random number sequences to be selected and exactly the same sequence to be used repeatedly, as desired.
- The 1000 bootstrap parameter sets are always used in the same sequence, with wrap round to the first set if necessary. In version 1.2 the option to choose which bootstrap parameter set is to be used at the start of a model run has been added.
- Updated estimated annual risk factor levels generated by the model for each subject are now provided on output worksheets for inspection or can to be copied to inout sheets for use in further model runs if desired.
- A “pre-flight check” option ensures that all of the input data are present and within acceptable ranges BEFORE the model is run.
- Worksheet tabs have been coloured for ease of identification (PC version only) as follows:
- Input worksheets------------------- Yellow
- Run worksheet --------------------- Red
- Check worksheets ----------------- Salmon
- Output worksheets----------------- Green
- Risk Factor Output worksheets ----- Pink
- Input worksheets have been amended so that:
- Age is no longer checked against duration of diabetes
- Alphanumeric data can be used in the “ID” column.
- Windows Users can now choose a desired location for the install and the shared core dll is placed in the system folder.
- In addition to the Microsoft Excel implementation of the UKPDS Outcomes Model a standalone implementation that runs on Windows, Macintosh and Linux platforms has now been provided. This implementation of the UKPDS Outcomes Model can handle an unlimited number of subjects (See section 13 of the manual) and does not require Microsoft Excel.
Version 1.1
19-Sep-2005
Updated UKPDS Outcomes Model software released.
Version 1.0
01-Dec-2004
UKPDS Outcomes Model software released.
